The correction that dominated conversation for two years is over, and the recovery has been steadier than most people expected. The second quarter of 2026 is the clearest evidence yet: seven of the eight brands tracked by the trade press improved their value retention against the first quarter, which is another way of saying the discount between retail and the open market keeps narrowing.
The three houses we handle
Quarter on quarter, secondary market prices rose at Rolex by roughly 1.7 percent, at Patek Philippe by 3.0 percent and at Audemars Piguet by 2.0 percent. Over twelve months the indices tell a wider story: Patek Philippe up around 18 percent, Rolex up around 9 percent, Audemars Piguet up a more modest 5 percent.
On value retention, the figure that matters if you care about what a watch is worth the day after you buy it, Patek Philippe finished the quarter around 15.4 percent, ahead of Rolex near 9.8 percent and Audemars Piguet near 3 percent. Every one of those numbers is better than it was a year ago, with Patek improving by more than ten points year on year.
Why that is more impressive than it looks
All three houses raised official retail prices significantly over the same period. Value retention is measured against retail, so an improving retention figure while retail is climbing means the open market rose faster than the list price did. That is a genuinely different market from 2023.
A rising index is not the same as a rising watch. Averages hide enormous spread between references.
What the averages hide
Brand level numbers are close to useless for a specific purchase. Within Rolex, the steel professional models and the precious metal dress references have behaved nothing alike this year. Within Patek, the Nautilus and Aquanaut families carry the index while much of the classical catalogue sits flat. One widely reported trend in 2026 has been unusually strong movement in smaller case sizes, which cuts across every brand and had been out of favour for a decade.
The practical version, for anyone buying: ask about the reference, not the brand. We quote on the piece in front of you, and we are happy to talk through where a specific reference has actually traded rather than where its maison's index went.
Sources
Figures in this piece are drawn from published market reporting, including WatchPro, the Chrono24 secondary market report, WatchCharts and Forbes. They describe the market, not any individual watch, and they are not investment advice.
